The local elections could spell the end for Keir Starmer – but it’s not necessarily all sewn up for Reform either, a politics expert has said.
Professor Tom Caygill, of the School of Social Sciences at Nottingham Trent University, said: “In the end, this will be it for Starmer.
“The worst set of results I think, for any party in the last century in terms of council elections.”
Reform have seen astounding success in the English Council elections, with many claiming that Nigel Farage may just be our next Prime Minister.
But, Professor Caygill warns that these elections have not been the resounding victory for Reform that they appear, saying that their success has been overhyped.
His assessment comes after one of the most seismic local elections in recent memory, with Reform taking 1,451 council seats and Greens winning big in both the English council elections and in the devolved nations.
So, what does all of this really mean for Labour?
And did Reform really have the victory they’re claiming?
Where did Labour go wrong?
“He is just universally disliked”, says Professor Caygill when asked about the Labour leader.
But, Sir Keir Starmer appears to be stubbornly staying the course, reiterating in a press conference on Monday May 11 that he isn’t going anywhere.
He acknowledged the public’s attitude towards his party in the speech, saying that whilst the party has made mistakes, they’ve got the big calls right.
But Professor Caygill argues the entire Labour brand has been damaged: “They promised change, but haven’t delivered it – at least not fast enough.”
Through a series of mis-steps and U-turns, including winter fuel repayments and the two-child benefit cap, Labour has alienated the public that voted for them, leaving them feeling frustrated and resentful.
He added: “These election results tell us that the public mood towards the Labour government is one of deep hostility, there’s no way to sugarcoat it.
“It is unprecedented.
“These results are a direct reflection of the government, we are voting on national lines.”
When it comes to exactly where it all went wrong, the political expert points to a couple of things: “It’s partly leadership, partly policy, development and cooperation. And then just a lack of communication strategy.”
What happened: the numbers
The PM has described the results as ‘tough, very tough’, with Labour losing a shocking 1,496 council seats in England, whilst the opposition party, the Conservatives, lost 563.
Reform came on top in the English council elections, taking control of 14 councils across the country.
The Greens made good ground too, picking up 441 council seats.
Why has there been so much change?
After gaining such a significant majority in 2024’s general election, many would expect that Labour would still be feeling the effect of their previous boost in popularity.
This has clearly has not been the case.
Professor Caygill said: “The party system has changed substantially between the 2024 election and this set of elections in that, the challenger parties on the right and the left are now seen as a reasonable choice in ways they weren’t previously.”
Resentment and anger from their fourteen years in government are clearly still plaguing the Tories, with the public feeling disenfranchised by the constant leader swapping and bad behaviour.
Professor Caygill points to a damaged brand at the root of the mainstream partys’ issues: “The Tory brand is damaged, the Liberal Democrat brand is still damaged from their coalition, and Labour’s brand is now damaged because they promised change and have not delivered.”
Leader of the Green Party, Zack Polanski, has described the two-party system as ‘dead and buried’, but Professor Caygill suggests that this has been the case for quite some time:
“It’s dead, but it’s been gone for a while.
“First past the post has held the perception of a two-party system for a long time.
“The mirage has now disappeared.”
So, while this may be the first time we have seen such a dramatic turn away from Labour and the Conservatives, it is clear that this change may have been something they have been subtly battling for a while.
What about Wales?
This year’s election results are a clear picture of how the public feel about the Labour government; and no results are more damning than Labour’s historic loss in Wales.
This year’s election saw Labour lose a national election in Wales for the first time in over 100 years.
Welsh Labour Leader and First Minister, Eluned Morgan also lost her seat.
This year the Welsh Parliament has grown from 60 to 96 seats and the constituency boundaries have changed too – meaning not everything is comparable.
“For Labour to go from just shy of the majority in the old system to only nine seats in the new system – that is catastrophic,” said Professor Caygill.
“Eluned Morgan losing her seat in the Senedd rounded off what was a terrible set of results for Welsh Labour, who are reduced to only nine seats.
“The rebuilding process for Welsh Labour is going to be a long one and starts with them having to elect a new leader.”
Who are the real winners here?
When it comes to who has made the most gains, it is clear Reform came out on top.
The party gained control of 14 councils in England, came second in the Welsh Parliament elections and gained 17 seats in the Scottish parliamentary elections.
Nigel Farage has said that this marks a ‘truly historic shift in British politics’, but experts are hesitant to say that a Reform Government is inevitable.
Professor Caygill said: “This is a really good set of results for Reform but it doesn’t guarantee what will happen in 2029 because the electoral system is much too volatile.
“There will be huge swings from election to election.
“This does not guarantee them victory in 2029.”
Notably, Reform councillors are already causing drama, with the party’s councillors in Suffolk refusing to speak to local news organisations.
These elections also saw the Green Party do exceptionally well, gaining control of five councils and two mayoral seats and winning six constituencies in the Scottish election and two in the Senedd election.
Professor Caygill said: “This is a great set of results for the Greens.
“I don’t think the Green Party is going to be as successful in terms of polling numbers and seats as Reform UK, but it can still do huge damage to Labour.”
